RoasFloor

Tariff impact on dropshipping in 2026: ten categories, recalculated

Until 2 May 2025, a parcel under $800 shipped direct from a Chinese supplier cleared US customs at 0% duty. That allowance — de minimis — ended for China and Hong Kong first, for every origin on 29 August 2025, and the suspension moved into standing regulation in June 2026. Every parcel now pays the full layered rate. We took one reference SKU, held every cost constant, and recalculated the break-even ROAS for ten categories. Only the duty changed.

The headline number

For apparel — woven from China, the effective duty on a direct-shipped parcel went from 0% to 40.4%. On our reference SKU that moves the break-even ROAS from 3.15x to 4.72x — every ad dollar now has to work 1.56x harder before the first cent of profit, and $4.20 of contribution margin per unit goes to duty instead of ads.

Duty by category, China origin

MFN plus the Section 301 forced labor duty (12.5% for China). If your 10-digit HTS code sits on China List 4A add 7.5 points; Lists 1–3 add 25. Bars are the current effective rate.

Apparel — woven40.4%Footwear32.5%Bags, luggage & wallets30.1%Apparel — knit29.0%Home textiles23.8%Jewelry & accessories23.5%Home & kitchen15.9%Cables, chargers & electrical…15.1%Consumer electronics12.5%Toys & games12.5%

What that does to the floor

The floor is the ROAS below which every sale loses money. Same SKU, same fees, same return rate — the only variable is duty.

CategoryDuty nowFloor, de minimis eraFloor nowMargin lost / unit
Apparel — woven40.4%1,2,3,43.15x4.72x$4.20
Footwear32.5%5,6,3,43.15x4.30x$3.38
Bags, luggage & wallets30.1%7,8,3,43.15x4.19x$3.13
Apparel — knit29.0%9,3,43.15x4.14x$3.02
Home textiles23.8%10,3,43.15x3.92x$2.48
Jewelry & accessories23.5%11,3,43.15x3.91x$2.44
Home & kitchen15.9%12,3,43.15x3.63x$1.65
Cables, chargers & electrical accessories15.1%13,3,43.15x3.60x$1.57
Consumer electronics12.5%14,3,43.15x3.51x$1.30
Toys & games12.5%15,3,43.15x3.51x$1.30
What these rates knowingly miss (15 notes)
  1. 1MFN is a category approximation from 6203.43.13. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–27.9% across HTS 6203–6204.
  2. 2Some HTS codes in 6203–6204 carry a specific duty on top of the percentage (for example cents per kilogram or per pair). This estimate models percentage duties only, so it understates the duty on those codes.
  3. 3No Section 301 China list rate is applied. If your HTS code sits on Lists 1–3 (25%) or List 4A (7.5%), your real duty is higher than shown.
  4. 4Annex I of the USTR notice exempts civil aircraft parts, articles for pharmaceutical use, steel/aluminium/copper articles and passenger vehicles and their parts (goods already covered by Section 232), and charitable relief donations. Nothing in the consumer categories here is exempt — but if you import metal drinkware, aluminium cases or similar, check whether your code falls under the Section 232 carve-out.
  5. 5MFN is a category approximation from 6402.91.30.00. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–48% across HTS 6402–6404.
  6. 6Some HTS codes in 6402–6404 carry a specific duty on top of the percentage (for example cents per kilogram or per pair). This estimate models percentage duties only, so it understates the duty on those codes.
  7. 7MFN is a category approximation from 4202.12.81. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–20% across HTS 4202.
  8. 8Some HTS codes in 4202 carry a specific duty on top of the percentage (for example cents per kilogram or per pair). This estimate models percentage duties only, so it understates the duty on those codes.
  9. 9MFN is a category approximation from 6109.10.00. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 2.6%–32% across HTS 6109–6110.
  10. 10MFN is a category approximation from 6302.53.00. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–20.9% across HTS 6302–6304.
  11. 11MFN is a category approximation from 7117.19.20.00. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 3.9%–11% across HTS 7117.
  12. 12MFN is a category approximation from 3924.10.10.00. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–6.5% across HTS 3923–3926.
  13. 13MFN is a category approximation from 8544.42.90. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–5.3% across HTS 8544.
  14. 14MFN is a category approximation from 8517.11.00.00. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–0% across HTS 8517–8518.
  15. 15MFN is a category approximation from 9503.00.00. Rates apply per 10-digit HTS code and range 0%–0% across HTS 9503.

The model, in the open

One reference SKU across all ten rows, so every difference you see is the duty and nothing else: $39.99 selling price, $10.00 FOB, $1.50 freight, $0.40 dutiable packaging, $0.55 clearance, 15% platform fee, 2.9% + $0.30 payment, $5.00 fulfilment, 6% returns. These are modelling choices, stated so you can disagree with them — not industry statistics. Duty applies to customs value (FOB plus dutiable packaging), the same way the landed cost calculator computes it.

Category rates are representative: within a single category, rates vary by 10-digit HTS code. Run your own numbers in the break-even ROAS calculator — it carries the same layered tariff model, including the China list tiers this table deliberately leaves out.

Why this is the dropshipping story of 2026

Three US tariff regimes moved in twelve months: the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February, the Section 301 forced labor duties arrived in July, and de minimis went from suspended to permanently regulated in June. The first two changed how much importers pay. De minimis changed whether direct-ship parcels pay at all — which is why it lands hardest on dropshipping, the model built on exactly those parcels. The full timeline is in the de minimis guide.

If you ship from China and last checked your unit economics before May 2025, the floor you are buying traffic against is not the floor you think it is. That is the entire reason RoasFloor exists — and why the calculators stay free.

Sources

Duty rates from the published Harmonized Tariff Schedule and Federal Register notices, verified 2026-08-22 — every layer and its source is documented on the methodology page. Estimates only; your customs broker’s classification governs. Rates last updated: 2026-08-22.